Is it Better to Wait Before Trading In? How Value Drops Over Time

Mobile phone depreciation happens faster than most people realise, and every month you hold onto your device, its value drops a little more. From the moment a new model hits the shelves, older phones start to lose their appeal – and their worth. But how quickly does that happen, and is it better to trade in your phone sooner rather than later?

In this post, we’ll break down how much depreciation on a mobile phone you can typically expect, what factors drive the biggest drops in value, and whether it’s worth waiting before you trade in. By the end, you’ll have a clear picture of how timing affects your trade-in value and how to make sure you get the best possible return for your device.

What is Phone Depreciation?

In simple terms, phone depreciation is the gradual loss of value your smartphone experiences from the moment you buy it. Just like a new car loses value as soon as it leaves the showroom, your phone starts to depreciate the moment it’s unboxed. Over time, the trade-in or resale value of the device decreases as new models and technologies are released.

It's also worth understanding the difference between trade-in value and resale value. Trade-in value refers to what a company or retailer offers you for your old phone, often as credit towards a new one. Resale value, on the other hand, is what you might earn by selling the phone directly to another person. In both cases, timing matters – the longer you wait, the more your device’s value is likely to decline.

Why Phone Depreciation Happens

Several factors contribute to this drop in value:

• New model launches: when a new version of a phone is released, older models typically become less desirable, pushing down their trade-in value.
• Rapid tech advancements: improvements in processors, cameras and battery efficiency make last year’s model seem outdated faster.
• Condition and wear: scratches, battery wear and general signs of use significantly affect how much you can get for your phone.
• Brand reputation and popularity: premium brands tend to hold their value longer, while budget or lesser-known models can depreciate faster.

On average, most smartphones can lose around 20-30% of their value within the first year, depending on brand and condition. The rate slows slightly after that, but depreciation continues year after year.

How Much Does a Phone Depreciate?

The amount that a phone depreciates depends on the brand, model and how long you’ve had it. According to our Smartphone Index, most devices see their steepest drop in value within the first one to two years.

Between 2018 and 2022, Apple iPhone models depreciated by around 53%, while Samsung phones lost close to 70% of their launch value over the same period. Even within the first year, both brands showed noticeable declines, with the gap widening over time.

This reflects a broader trend of mobiles experiencing a sharper early value drop than many other consumer tech items like laptops or cameras. After around three years, depreciation tends to level off, meaning the biggest hit happens early on.

Here’s a general rule of thumb based on market data and 4gadgets’ analysis:

While premium models tend to hold their value better, all phones depreciate over time. The key takeaway? If you’re holding onto an older model, each passing month can reduce what you’ll get back when you trade it in.

Understanding this helps you plan your upgrades strategically – trading in while your device still has strong resale value ensures you get the best possible return.

Does Waiting Affect Trade-in Price?

When it comes to trading in your old phone, timing can make a big difference. The simple answer is that the longer you wait, the less you’ll typically get for your device.

Smartphones lose the bulk of their value in their first couple of years. Our Smartphone Index shows that depreciation is steepest in the first 12-18 months, before gradually levelling off. That means the ‘sweet spot’ for trading in is usually within the first or second year of ownership, when your device is still relatively current and in good condition.

There are also product launches to consider. Each year, new flagship models from Apple and Samsung cause older versions to lose value almost overnight. Waiting until after these launches to trade in your phone often means competing with a surge of similar devices entering the market, which drives down offers.

To understand more about timings, read our blog post on ‘When is the Best Time to Trade in Old Tech?’. It explains how prices tend to peak just before new releases and during high demand periods such as post-Christmas and back-to-school season.

In short, if your phone is still performing well and the next model hasn’t yet been announced, it’s a good time to trade in. Acting early means you’ll lock in a stronger price and avoid the inevitable value drop that follows the next big launch.

Factors That Impact How Fast Value Drops

While every smartphone depreciates over time, some lose value much faster than others. A mix of brand reputation, physical condition, age and current market trends all play a role in how much you’ll get back when you trade in.

1. Brand and Model

Not all devices hold their worth equally. Premium brands, particularly Apple and Samsung, tend to retain higher trade-in prices because they stay in demand for longer and receive software support for several years. As outlined in our guide, ‘Is Your Old Device Worth Trading In?’, flagship models from these brands have stronger resale markets, while older or less-known models can see value drop more quickly as updates phase out.

2. Condition

Your phone’s physical and functional condition has one of the biggest impacts on its value. Cracked screens, battery issues or cosmetic wear can all push a phone into a lower price bracket. At 4gadgets, devices are graded into two simple categories – fully working or faulty – to make the process transparent and fair.

If your phone is damaged, you can still trade it, but the payout will be lower. Our blog post ‘Is It Worth Trading in a Cracked Phone?’ explains how even a small repair can sometimes lift a phone into a higher valuation tier, often increasing its trade-in worth beyond the cost of fixing it.

3. Age and Time Since Launch 

The first 6-12 months after release are critical. Once the next generation launches, older models usually take an immediate hit in value. Acting before a launch, rather than after, typically ensures the best trade-in price.

4. Technology Changes and Market Demand

Technological advances and shifts in consumer interest play a major role. For instance, when 5G became mainstream or when foldable designs entered the market, demand for older 4G or non-foldable models declined. Similarly, when new camera or performance features are introduced, last year’s models often appear outdated. Market demand also fluctuates seasonally, where high-demand periods like January or September can help sellers secure stronger offers.

5. Storage Size and Specifications

Higher-spec models with larger storage capacities or upgraded features tend to hold their value longer. Limited-edition or ‘Pro’ versions often fetch higher trade-in prices because of ongoing demand among second-hand buyers. Read more about how trade-in prices are calculated in our guide.

6. Trade-In Programme Structures

Finally, the structure of the trade-in programmes can influence how much you get back. Devices that are unlocked usually command better offers, while including accessories or original packaging can sometimes boost your return. Some programmes also run limited-time promotions around major launch events or holidays, so keeping an eye out for these can pay off.

Overall, depreciation is unavoidable, but it doesn’t have to catch you off guard. By understanding what drives loss and acting before major drops occur, you’ll be in a stronger position to get the most from your device when it’s time to trade in.

Should You Trade In Now or Wait?

If you’ve been holding onto your old phone and wondering whether waiting affects its trade-in price, the short answer is yes. As we’ve already seen, how much a phone depreciates depends on its age and condition, and the longer you wait, the less value you’re likely to retrieve. That’s why timing your trade-in carefully can make a difference to how much money you get back.

Here's a simple way to decide whether it’s better to trade in now or hold onto your device a little longer:

• If your phone is less than 12 months old
  Trade in sooner rather than later. Phones lose the most value within the first year, and after that, depreciation accelerates. If your device is still in great condition and you’re planning to upgrade, acting before the next major model launch helps lock in the highest return.
• If your phone is between 12-24 months old
  You can hold onto it a little longer if you’re still using it daily but be aware that value drops quickly after the two-year mark. As our Smartphone Index shows, devices that reach the end of their second year often lose 60-70% of their original worth. Beyond this point, resale and trade-in prices flatten, so waiting longer won’t gain you much.
• If your phone is more than 24 months old
  Expect a significant reduction in trade-in credit, sometimes as much as 80-90% of its launch value. By this stage, newer technologies, battery wear and limited software support all play a role in lowering value. Trading in older devices still make sense – it’s quick, easy and helps prevent tech waste – but your return will be smaller.

How Can I Get the Most Value for My Phone When Trading In?

Whether you’re ready to trade in now or soon, these practical steps can help you get the best possible offer:

• Keep your device in top condition: protect it with a case and screen protector to prevent scratches or cracks.
• Trade in before the next model launches: prices typically fall right after new releases.
• Compare multiple quotes: different providers may value your device differently. However, some resellers may reduce the amount you receive unexpectedly, so choosing a provider that honours their initial quote may be more favourable.
• Include accessories and packaging: some resellers will provide a better price if you still have the box, charger or cables.
• Look out for promotions or bonus offers: retailers sometimes offer limited-time trade-in boosts during upgrade seasons.
• Back up and wipe your data: not only for security but also to make your device ready for resale.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

How much depreciation occurs on a mobile phone in the first year?

On average, a mobile phone depreciates by around 40-60% in its first year. Flagship models like iPhones typically lose around half of their launch value within 12 months, according to the findings in our Smartphone Index, while other brands such as Samsung often drop closer to 60-70% in the same period. The exact figure depends on factors like brand reputation, release timing and overall condition.

Does waiting affect trade-in value if my phone is still working fine?

Waiting does affect trade-in value, even if your phone is still working perfectly. Smartphones lose value steadily over time, and the biggest drops usually happen within the first 12-24 months after launch. So, while your phone might still perform well, it’s market demand decreases as newer models are released with upgraded features and software.

Should I wait for the new model to trade in my old phone?

In most cases, you shouldn’t wait for the new model to launch before trading in your old phone. That’s because trade-in values typically drop sharply right after a new device is announced. When a fresh model hits the market, demand for older versions falls – and so does their resale price.

The smarter move is to trade in just before the next release, when your current phone still holds strong value and buyer demand is high. This timing helps you lock in a better price and gives you more to put towards your upgrade.

Is trading in or selling privately better for value?

Whether trading in or selling privately is better for value depends on your priorities – maximum return vs speed and convenience.

Trading in is ideal if you want a hassle-free, fast and reliable option, or if your phone isn’t in perfect condition. At 4gadgets, devices are graded simply as fully working or faulty, so you always know what to expect from your valuation.

Selling privately might suit you if you’re confident in managing the process and want to squeeze out every bit of value from a newer or high-demand model.

Final Thoughts

It’s easy to hold onto a phone for a little longer – especially if it’s still working. But from a view of maximising value, trading in sooner almost always makes more sense. Smartphones lose a significant portion of their worth in the first year or two, and every extra month you wait means a smaller return when it’s time to upgrade.

That doesn’t mean you should rush to trade in immediately. The right timing depends on your own needs, budget and upgrade plans. If you’re happy with the device and don’t mind missing out on some value, there’s nothing wrong with keeping it longer. But if you’re planning to upgrade soon, acting before the next major release can help you get the best trade-in price possible.

Trading in earlier isn’t just good for your wallet, it’s also better for the planet. Every device that’s refurbished or reused instead of sitting in a drawer helps reduce e-waste and keeps valuable materials in circulation.